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Leopard 2A8 [Germany - Forecast]

Last reviewed: 17th July 2025

Snapshot

Following a June 2025 NATO summit, it was reported that NATO had asked Germany to provide seven new brigades to reinforce the alliance's eastern flank. This would require Germany to acquire thousands of new armoured vehicles. This forecast deals with the MBTs Germany would be required to procure, of which Shephard forecasts that Germany will acquire 650 with a total value of US$12.4 billion.

The other required armoured vehicles are covered in their entries, which are linked below.

 

Annual expenditure

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Annual units funded

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Summary

Programme value:
$12.4 billion (Estimated)
Units required:
650 (Estimated)
Award year:
2025
Status:
Forecast
Type:
Procurement - new
Systems:
Leopard 2A7/A8 - Potential
Unit cost:
$13.6 million (Estimated)
PGO:
60% ?

Bids and suppliers

KNDS Deutschland - Leopard 2A7/A8 - GERMANY

KNDS Deutschland - Leopard 2A7/A8 - GERMANY

Potential

 
Supplier
Equipment Category
Subcategory
System Name
Prime KNDS Deutschland
Manufacturer:KNDS Deutschland
Equipment Category:Military vehicles
Equipment Category: Tanks
System Name:Leopard 2A7/A8

Additional Information

Programme Background

The SPD-led approach

Since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, Germany has been under consistent pressure to increase its defence spending.

In the immediate aftermath of the invasion, the then German Chancellor Olaf Scholz gave his famous Zeitenwende, or 'turning point' speech, in which he vowed to create a special €100 billion (US$110.5 billion) fund to modernise the Bundeswehr. This included €16.6 billion ($18.5 billion) for the German Army, to be split between modernising existing equipment and procuring new armoured vehicles.

Whilst welcomed by many, it should be noted that the Bundeswehr had experienced years of chronic underfunding. In 2022, German defence spending stood at $56.15 billion, or 1.39% of GDP, approximately $24 billion less than the minimum needed to meet Germany's NATO commitment of spending 2% of GDP on defence.

Throughout the remainder of Olaf Scholz's tenure as Chancellor, the German government was repeatedly criticised for failing to follow through with the promises of Zeitenwende and for not committing enough resources to make its goals a reality. By the time Scholtz left office in 2025, German defence spending had still not reached 2% of GDP.

The 2025 German Election

In February 2025, the CDU won the German federal elections and its leader Friedrich Mertz became the Chancellor-designate of Germany.

Throughout the preceding election campaign, Mertz made the need for Germany to rearm a focal point of his campaign, a rarity for German politics and signalled just how far the political ground had shifted.

Prior to officially taking office, Mertz proposed a new constitutional rule that would exempt defence spending from Germany's debt brake rules, potentially allowing for unlimited spending on defence without having to adhere to the strict fiscal rules that normally govern Germany's budget. 

This was officially passed by the Bundestag in March 2025, paving the way for significant increases in defence spending.

The Chancellorship of Friedrich Mertz

Mertz was officially elected Chancellor on 6th May 2025. On the 22nd May, Mertz inaugurated a new German mechanised brigade, the 45th Panzer Brigade, which will be permanently stationed in Lithuania, the first German formation to be permanently stationed in Eastern Europe since 1945.

During this inauguration, Mertz gave a speech in which he vowed to defend every inch of NATO territory, saying that the Bundeswehr needed to become the strongest conventional army in Europe.

It was reported in late May 2025 that NATO was planning to ask Germany to provide seven new brigades as part of the alliance's collective defence effort. Whilst not officially confirmed, in early June 2025, the German defence minister, Boris Pistorius, said that Germany needed to train up to 60,000 new troops to meet NATO targets for personnel and formations. This lent credence to the idea that Germany was seeking to create seven new brigades.

In late June 2025, the German government approved a plan to spend $761 billion over the next five years to increase defence spending to 3.5% of GDP. It also laid out steps to achieve 2,4% of GDP on defence by the end of 2025.

Also in June 2025, NATO agreed that member states would increase their defence spending target to 5% of GDP by 2035.

New Mechanised Brigade Requirements

The minimum composition of a German mechanised brigade intended for frontline manoeuvre warfare includes a minimum of 44 Leopard 2s and 88 IFVs. Having ordered 105 new Leopard 2A8s to equip it, the 45th Panzer Brigade appears to be following the structure of the 9th Panzerlehr Brigade, which comprises two tank battalions and two mechanised infantry battalions, comprising 44 Leopard 2A6s, 44 Leopard 2A7s, and 88 Puma IFVs. Once it reaches full strength, it will also include 5,000 troops.

This indicates that Germany will require at least 35,000 new soldiers to adequately staff seven brigades. To equip these new brigades, Germany would need at least 616 new MBTs and 616 IFVs. This does not include the procurement of any spare vehicles or the pressing need to replace Germany's significant fleet of older vehicles. Additionally, lighter tactical vehicles will be required for reconnaissance and support roles.

Forecast Methodology

Quantity Required

Shephard forecasts that Germany will need to procure at least 650 Leopard 2A8s. This would provide enough MBTs to equip seven new brigades, whilst also providing surplus vehicles for both training and to ensure that each brigade remains at maximum readiness.

Programme Value and Unit Cost

Shephard estimates that the unit cost of a Leopard 2A8 is $13.6 million. This is based on the most recent German contract for the Leopard 2A8 signed in 2024. Shephard forecasts a total programme value of $12.4 billion. This includes an additional 40% to account for the procurement and logistics costs that are likely to accompany the programme. To meet an order of this size within a reasonable timeframe, KNDS will need to invest in new production facilities. As such, procurement costs will likely be much higher than those of other Leopard 2 programmes which have been achievable with existing production capacity.

PGO

Shephard has awarded this programme a 60% PGO. If Germany is to meet its NATO commitments, then it will need to invest in additional armoured units. Doing this in the near future will ensure that they can be made operational within a reasonable time frame. 

The value of this programme would be the equivalent of 0.22% of German GDP. Combined with programmes for the other platforms required for these new brigades, this would be a major contributor towards Germany spending 3.5% of GDP on defence by the end of the decade. 

However, Germany remains constrained by its industrial base. If Germany is to produce enough MBTs then it will need to develop a coherent plan to ensure that it has the productive capacity to produce the platforms it needs.

Programme Timeline

Shephard forecasts that a contract is likely to be signed by the end of 2025. 

However, the programme will likely take time to come online. As Shephard has previously forecast, at current capacity, Germany's previous Leopard 2 order is unlikely to be completed until 2032. As such KNDS will need to increase its productive capacity in order to meet this order. 

Shephard forecasts that this programme will require several years of investment before production will be able to increase. This is likely to result in deliveries commencing in low numbers towards the end of the decade before production is able to increase in the 2030s. Even with this increase in productive capacity, orders are not likely to be completed until the early 2040s.

Related Programmes

Puma IFV [Germany - Forecast]

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Following a June 2025 NATO summit, it was reported that NATO had asked Germany to provide seven new brigades to reinforce the alliance's eastern flank. …

Korsak Reconnaissance Vehicle [Germany - Forecast]

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Following a June 2025 NATO summit, it was reported that NATO had asked Germany to provide seven new brigades to reinforce the alliance's eastern flank. …

Latest updates

Field Old Value New Value Date
Value 1240000000.0 12400000000.0 22/07/2025