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Rolling the dice: how wargaming can prepare naval commanders for tough decisions

26th October 2023 - 01:10 GMT | by Alix Valenti

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This analysis article originally appeared in October's Decisive Edge Naval Newsletter.

The Peruvian Naval War College hosted its first International Wargaming Symposium on 17-19 October. For three days, European and American experts congregated in Lima to discuss what wargaming is (and is not) and how it benefits strategic and tactical decision-making – including the impact of new technologies.

Before delving into what wargaming is, it is key to understand what it is not. Wargaming is not exercising and it is not simulation and training... Continues below

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Above: Wargaming can be used to understand how new technologies such as uncrewed systems can affect strategy and tactics at sea. (Photo: USN)

As the US-based Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) indicates, exercises – like NATO’s REPMUS or the USN’s RIMPAC – are meant to perfect actions, that is, practice manoeuvres with allies and/or joint forces.

Simulation and training, as generally understood, is about perfecting individual skills in specific situations within synthetic environments. Where training is networked, the aim remains that of ensuring individuals can work efficiently and effectively together.

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Wargaming, on the other hand, is about informing decisions. The motivation for designing, organising and running wargames is rooted in a famous – in the wargaming community – quote taken from Prussian field marshal Helmuth von Moltke’s 1871 essay about military strategy: ‘No plan of operations extends with any certainty beyond the first encounter with the main enemy forces.’

Wargaming is about learning how to deal with the uncertainty that pervades every aspect of a war.

‘There are two different types of military wargames,’ Sebastian J Bae, research analyst and wargame designer at CNA’s Gaming and Integration unit, told the author. Educational games teach young officers how to make decisions and learn to deal with the consequences. Analytical games enable players to run through different scenarios and facilitate their decision-making.

‘Analytical wargames can also be used to understand how the introduction of new technologies can impact strategies and tactics,’ Bae continued. There could be a wargame, for instance, that helps military planners understand how to integrate uncrewed systems in their planning and, eventually, the impact these capabilities could have.

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When asked if analytical wargames could also be used to better understand ethical considerations – a critical topic when looking at autonomous systems – Bae responded: ‘Absolutely!’ In fact, together with fellow wargamer Elizabeth Joslyn, wargaming analyst for a federally funded research and development centre, Bae developed Horns of a Dilemma, a game about ethical military decision-making.

All the games presented on the third day of the symposium in Lima were paper/board games. Considering how, as defence journalists, we are used to hearing about the importance of digitalisation for new generations of officers, this was surprising.

‘There are, of course, digital versions of wargames,’ said one symposium participant from Canada who runs wargames for the Royal Canadian Navy, ‘but very often our young officers ask to go back to “analogue” versions.’

Alfred Turner, Associate Professor in the Joint Military Operations Department of the US Naval War College, expressed a similar finding in his presentation: ‘Even when we run digital versions we often keep real dice because students seem to better connect to the game that way.’

Above: Wargaming specialists find that physical boards, cards and dice are more engaging for players than digital alternatives. (Photo: Peruvian Naval War College)

This is undoubtedly related to one of the key messages from the symposium, expressed most clearly by Natalia Wojtowicz, Lecturer in Wargaming and Cybersecurity at the Hague University of Applied Sciences: ‘Wargaming is about people.’

At the design stage, wargaming is about understanding the research question, whether educational or analytical, that requires exploring – ie what is the problem or the gap military personnel are facing. At the playing stage, wargaming is as much about the players, who are trying to understand or learn how to deal with uncertainty and the consequences of course correction, as it is about the facilitators.

Facilitators have a critical role in explaining the game but also in fostering the discussion that will lead to the answer to the research question. Because a wargame is only as good as the discussions and the reflective thinking it can engender.

‘Wargaming is not about playing a game for the sake of it, it is about reflecting on one’s actions, what led to the decisions they took, what they could have done differently, and what they may do differently next time,’ Lt Col Thorsten Kodalle, head of the Innovation Lab at the Bundeswehr Command and Staff College, told the author.

And for such discussions to happen, wargame designers and facilitators alike must create an environment where players understand that the aim is not ‘winning’. Perhaps a counter-intuitive notion in a gaming environment, failing in a wargame is very important because that is what will prompt critical thinking.

In fact, this was the second key message from the symposium. Students need to understand that it is a safe-to-fail environment. Only then will they take away important lessons from their experience.

I, for one, played Neustart, a game about how civil society can organise to prevent a general blackout in a village from turning into chaos, and I learnt one important lesson: as a freelancer I am too used to working – and taking decisions – on my own!

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