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Angles of attack – how industry is enabling naval uncrewed swarms on, above and below the waves

The war in Ukraine has drawn considerable attention to uncrewed systems attacking naval vessels, including in much-vaunted swarms. This may be news to the general media, but industry has been working on uncrewed swarms for decades, and progress is afoot in all three domains – air, surface and underwater.

On 13 September Ukraine launched yet another attack against Russian ships using uncrewed systems. The raid, carried out by three Magura V5 USVs, can hardly be described as a swarm attack – which would typically need to feature multiple systems acting simultaneously – but does highlight once more the operational importance of UxVs in attempting to saturate enemy defences.

Schiebel – leading the unmanned evolution

Industry has been working on the technologies enabling swarms of uncrewed systems, primarily artificial intelligence (AI) and advanced communication links, for quite some time now.

For instance, Blue Bear, a Saab company since its acquisition by the Swedish defence giant in September this year, has been working on AI-enabled swarms for decades. ‘Blue Bear started with autonomous single assets in the land domain,’ Yoge Patel, the company’s CEO, told Shephard. ‘But as we saw the rise of multi-domain integration/operation, we began applying our know-how to UAVs to create swarms.’

Focused on agile development, Blue Bear uses an open architecture system that allows any third-party AI to be integrated to facilitate swarming between multiple systems.

Moving on from land and air, the company has also been working on enhancing USV autonomy and facilitating swarming since 2015. In 2016, it participated in the Unmanned Warrior exercise and successfully demonstrated 11 uncrewed vehicles working as a system above, on and under the water.

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As a Saab company, Blue Bear intends to continue exploring the possibilities in all three domains, especially underwater, while Saab will leverage Blue Bear’s work on autonomy and support its growth.

‘Saab has developed a wide range of systems for the oil and gas and military domains, and we are now looking to integrate Blue Bear’s systems into ours to increase autonomy in support of seabed warfare,’ Dean Rosenfield, chief marketing officer at Saab and group MD at Saab UK, told Shephard.

Above: Saab intends to use Blue Bear’s technology to make its seabed warfare solutions more autonomous. (Image: Saab)

Over in France, SME Arkeocean has been making important waves as well over the past year by demonstrating that underwater swarming is possible. The company has developed a solution that comprises three interconnected systems.

INCAs are UUVs that can be deployed as swarms to silently drift in the ocean and then act as a large synthetic receiving antenna.

MAYA is a multi-role UUV that acts as both a ‘data mule’ – bringing back INCAs’ data to the surface to communicate with other systems – and as a repositioning system, by connecting to the Ultra Short Baseline positioning system integrated in the INCAs. Accurate positioning is in fact critical to swarming, yet difficult to achieve underwater.

INCA and MAYA connect through the SEAKER acoustic system, which allows the latter to dock on the former.

While UAV and USV swarming are already well under way, enabled by a wide range of line of sight (LoS) and beyond-LoS communications, UUV swarming still has a way to go. Arkeocean’s solution underlines the continuous constraints the underwater world places on such ambitions: the swarms may be autonomous in their mission, but that autonomy is currently enabled by a relay with the surface.

Communicating and positioning underwater remains a significant challenge, one that will keep engineers up at night for some time still as they attempt to achieve full sub-surface swarming autonomy.

As the submarine’s role changes, what new technologies need to be on board?

Once, submarines went off to carry out their missions and largely stayed silent, but now they have become an integral part of a networked battlespace. As navies grapple with new CONOPS, industry is trying to understand what the future submarine could look like.

‘A few decades ago, the submarine was essentially a solitary hunter that received orders and communicated as little as possible,’ Thierry Petit, operational expert at Naval Group, told the author in a recent interview. ‘Today submarines are fully integrated in the CONOPS of multi-domain operations, which has several implications.’

Above: Naval Group’s SMX-31E concept submarine is exploring the use of deployable USVs and buoys to extend communication ranges. (Image: Naval Group)

Key among those is the need to communicate and share larger volumes of data over longer distances.

To address these emerging needs, several industry developers are tackling the problem from various angles, seeking to find innovative solutions in spite of the limitations the underwater domain inevitably imposes.

During DSEI 2023, for instance, SpearUAV was showcasing a submarine version of the Viper 750 encapsulated UAV. The new capsule allows a submarine to launch the Viper 750 from its 4in signal ejector, which is standard on most classes and platforms around the world.

Once the capsule reaches the surface, the UAV is either released immediately or on a timer basis, allowing the submarine to move away from the area and retain its stealth.

The UAS allows the submarine to communicate encrypted messages using S-band, using the point-to-multipoint method to allow information exchange between multiple platforms. The system’s range depends on power and customer requirements.

The critical benefit is being able to share this information either in real-time or at a given time, to enable full maritime domain awareness across platforms. The submarine version of Viper 750 is currently at Technology Readiness Level 7.

Over at Orbit Communication Systems, speaking to Asaf Punis, VP global marketing and business development, the need to enable more reliable, long-range communications for a submarine was also evident.

Orbit has been providing aerial and maritime SATCOM for over 30 years, and today is looking at integrating airborne SATCOM systems into USV and submarine masts.

‘Orbit’s MPT30WGX and MPT46WGX Ka-band antennas are airborne antennas that have already proven their high efficiency and reliability with multiple customers,’ Punis said.

The MPT30WGX would be particularly interesting for submarines because it weighs only 9.5kg and has a 30cm circumference.

This ruggedised technology could be fitted onto a boat’s mast in order to extend its communication capabilities. ‘Orbit is currently looking for partners to work on the mast integration,’ Punis concluded.

For Saab, the importance of dealing with larger volumes of data to communicate and react in an efficient manner has translated into the development of a new concept console for its 9LV combat management system.

‘Today crews face larger amounts of tasks, threats and data, all of which requires multitasking on consoles and screens that often limit the potential,’ Johan Hägg, 9LV product manager in Saab’s Surveillance business area, told media during a pre-DSEI briefing.

The new concept console has been designed with the operator as the focus. It integrates an ergonomic seat designed to accommodate a broad range of male and female body shapes, and sits on its own platform to protect crewmembers from shock and vibrations.

Above: Saab’s concept console for its 9LV management system puts the focus firmly on the operator. (Image: Saab)

Just as importantly, the console features a touch input display, a touchpad and an ortholinear split keyboard with backlighting. The human-machine interface has been designed to offer more automation and less detailed functionality, to facilitate training, and the operator can personalise the way information is presented.

‘Ultimately, this is a concept console that allows us to play with different ideas of what a console designed to facilitate the life of the operator could look like,’ Hägg noted. ‘We believe that this will help them accelerate the OODA [observe, orient, decide, act] loop and, therefore, increase mission success.’

Finally, although Naval Group was not present at DSEI, it is worth mentioning that the French industry player has also developed a submarine concept: the SMX31E. ‘The SMX31E is a concept ship that allows us to integrate what we believe will be the key technologies to enable tomorrow’s submarine operations and see how they work, get customer feedback and be ready for the future,’ Petit explained.

Among the evolutions being tested with the SMX31E is the submarine’s ability to deploy uncrewed systems and buoys to be able to extend communication ranges and facilitate networks from underwater all the way to surface units and airborne platforms.

Some of these developments are still at the concept stage and others are in experimental phases or ready for operational test. Although they may not feature in submarines currently being built, they underline these platforms’ evolving role and their growing importance in multi-domain operations.

Is DSEI now a naval show?

With record levels of attendance, from both visitors and exhibitors, DSEI 2023 was undoubtedly a success. But perhaps even more important, from this writer’s perspective, is the fact that naval technologies were no longer just in an ‘area’ – they were ubiquitous.

Above: Naval technologies and new vessel and UxV designs featured prominently at DSEI 2023. (Photo: Clarion Events)

One need not have attended a large number of DSEI shows to realise that this year’s was busy. According to official statistics, a total of 1,500 exhibitors attended the show, fully occupying ExCeL London’s vast floor space, and visitors were up by around 23% compared to the last pre-COVID show in 2019.

From a naval writer’s viewpoint, besides the sea of people one had to navigate to get from one stand to another, what was particularly surprising was the fact that naval technologies were no longer relegated to a cordoned-off ‘area’. In 2023 they were ubiquitous, both on the show floor and in the number of press releases in one’s mailbox.

That the 21st century would be a maritime one has a been a leitmotiv of the naval industry for over a decade now, but no event has made this more evident than the war in Ukraine.

The importance for the Ukrainian armed forces of regaining cities and territories is on par with the strategic significance of the Black Sea, both for military and commercial purposes. The latest Ukrainian attacks on Sevastopol and the Russian fleet – apparently succeeding in writing off a Kilo-class submarine - on 13 September came right on cue during DSEI to demonstrate this.

Undoubtedly, uncrewed systems have come to take up a large share of the naval market and this was evident at the event. Exail was displaying its full range of USVs, UUV and AUVs over in the French corner, while BAE Systems’ impressive stand also featured Nautomate, a new autonomous (surface) control system, and the Herne XLAUV.

Above: BAE Systems used the event to showcase its Herne XLAUV. (Image: BAE Systems)

Above the sea, on 14 September Leonardo and the UK MoD unveiled a ‘mature concept of technology demonstrator' for the Project Proteus Rotary Wing UAS, while Saab displayed Blue Bear’s UAVs – the company’s latest acquisition.

More generally, on the exhibition floor it was impossible to miss stands such as BMT’s or the Royal Navy’s. In fact, both took advantage of the exhibition to reveal Team Resolute’s design of the Royal Fleet Auxiliary’s future Fleet Solid Support ship.

Another important naval player, Kongsberg, leveraged DSEI to unveil its new Mission Bay Handling System (MBHS), a timely product as an increasing number of navies are moving towards multi-mission ships. The MBHS can handle containers weighing up to 15t, but can also be used to launch small boats and (of course!) uncrewed systems, surface and underwater.

Last, but certainly not least, even big industry players such as Thales and Northrop Grumman, who in previous years did not showcase many naval systems on their main stands, did so this year.

Thales’ naval ‘zone’ featured large screens that showed live feeds of the company’s mine neutralisation capabilities within the French-UK MMCM programme as they were being tested in Portugal during REPMUS 2023. As for Northrop Grumman, the company was showcasing its Integrated Battle Command System (IBCS), demonstrating the importance of multi-domain operations in today’s warfare.

One could argue that this year, more than ever before, DSEI was a truly tri-service, integrated defence exhibition.

Fridtjof Nansen Frigate Replacement (Norway)

In 2022, Shephard had forecasted that Norway’s Fridtjof Nansen-class frigates would need to be replaced starting from the early 2030s.

In 2022, the Norwegian government announced a 9.8% year-on-year planned increase in the national defence budget to NOK75.8 billion. The budget document highlights the need to consider replacing the current surface vessels. According to a 2023 report by the Norwegian Defence Commission, Oslo, together with a partner nation, could acquire up to six new frigates under a $9.5 billion procurement programme.

Shephard understands an RfI was issued in May 2023.

Programme background

Requirements

The Royal Norwegian Navy has four Fridtjof Nansen-class frigates. Five were originally built and delivered, but one sank in November 2018. Shephard forecasts that the Fridtjof Nansen-class frigates will need to be replaced starting from the early 2030s, given that the lead ship entered service in 2006 and no life-extension works have been carried out so far.

Considering the limited AAW weapons (only eight VLS cells in three out of four frigates) and changing threat scenarios, the Norwegian Navy could look at more capable warships.

Timeline

The Norwegian government, on 6 October 2022, announced a 9.8% year-on-year planned increase in the national defence budget to NOK75.8 billion. The budget document highlights the need to start considering replacing the current surface vessels.

In particular, although the Fridtjof Nansen-class frigates are expected to undergo life-extension works to keep them in service until the mid-2030s, the document underlines how there is uncertainty around such works due to costs. In addition, the 2023 budget proposal states that 'the upgrade of the frigates will be seen in connection with the phasing in of a new surface structure'.

Thus, it is fair to assume that discussions are taking place regarding whether to update the existing frigates or invest in a new class of vessels. Should Olso decide to halt the modernisation programme, new ships will be needed in the early 2030s.

In March 2023, Norwegian media outlet VG reported that the Royal Norwegian Navy expressed the intention to procure new frigates instead of updating the in-service ones. Norwegian Navy Vice Admiral Rune Andersen told VG that a joint shipbuilding solution is currently under evaluation.

Different European countries are now investing in future frigate-sized vessels, from Germany to the Netherlands, to Sweden and Denmark. Thus, this seems like perfect timing for Oslo to find a foreign partner.

In May 2023, the Norwegian Defence Commission published a report recommending procuring six new frigates. The document describes a highly challenging security environment for Norway. It proposes a significant increase in defence spending: an immediate increase of the defence budget by approximately NOK 30 billion ($2.85 billion) to bolster personnel and fill stocks of ammunition and a NOK 40 billion ($3.8 billion) investment per year over a ten-year period for increased investments in military equipment.

The report emphasizes the importance of the maritime sphere for the country. In particular, the document stresses that Norway needs enough vessels to patrol its borders and participate in the missions in the broader NATO framework. In this context, the Commission suggests that the number of frigates should be increased to six through the joint procurement of platforms with a foreign allied nation.

A Norwegian MoD report on future defence acquisitions (Future Acquisitions for The Norwegian Defense Sector 2023–2030) released in May 2023 features information regarding the ‘New surface vessel structure’ project. According to the document, the purpose of the project is to replace the capacity currently comprised of frigates and corvettes. However, the project concept and scope are not defined yet. Interestingly, the budget allocation is between $3 and $4.5 billion starting in 2029.

Shephard understands an RfI for new corvettes and frigates was issued in May 2023.

Contenders and Bidders

Regarding the partnership with another country for the joint procurement of the frigates, Shephard notes that the De Zeven Provincien-class Replacement Programme could represent a suitable option for Oslo. However, other countries such as Denmark, Sweden and Germany are also looking to acquire new frigates under a similar timeline.

According to the Norwegian newspaper DN, likely contenders for the programme are the Constellation-class design, the Type 26, the Type 31, and the future German F127 frigate.

Fincantieri

Fincantieri confirmed to Shephard that it answered the May 2023 RfI together with its Norwegian subsidiary Vard.

Contract Award

Given the challenging security environment of the country and the need to replace the existing line of frigates, Shephard estimates a contract will be awarded around 2025/2026.

Forecast Methodology

Quantity

According to the Norwegian newspaper VG, the Royal Norwegian Navy aims to procure six new frigates. This number coincides with what was indicated by the report of the Norwegian Defence Commission.

The Norwegian Chief of Defence, Gen Eirik Kristoffersen, recommended the country procure a minimum of four, but preferably six, new frigates in a June 2023 report to the government.

Programme Value & Unit Cost

The 2023 report published by the Norwegian Defence Commission suggests that the procurement of six frigates could cost NOK 100 billion ($9.5 billion), with annual operational costs of around NOK 2 billion ($190 million). This yields an estimated unit cost of $1.6 billion.

By looking at frigate programmes recently awarded in Europe, such as the MKS 180 Programme, the Spanish F-110 programme and the French FDI programme, on average, the Norwegian programme appears to be more expensive. However, as noted, the abovementioned procurement projects were awarded a few years ago.

Programme Years

Given that, without the life extension works, the Fridtjof Nansen-class frigates are due for replacement in the early 2030s, a decision needs to be taken around 2025/2026.

To estimate the programme years, the estimated unit cost has spread across the construction period of each vessel.

Construction & Delivery Timeline

Assuming a contract would be awarded in 2025, with an estimated three-year construction period, and with works beginning in 2026, the First of Class would be launched around 2029. Estimating one to two years between launch and commissioning, all ships are expected to enter service by 2035.

Please note that this is a highly speculative timeline and may not represent the likelihood of the programme advancing at that speed.

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