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How new threats are making information exchange for coalition naval forces more vital than ever

As Russia starts using more hypersonic weapons in its war on Ukraine and North Korea ramps up ballistic missile tests, European armed forces face a need to develop efficient detection, identification and countermeasures in all domains. This includes above-water warfare (AWW).

So today, more than ever, the threat profile is putting the spotlight on the importance of the European Commission’s Naval Collaborative Surveillance (NCS) programme.

Above: Information exchange between ships (and aircraft) of different navies in a coalition force needs to be better to counter emerging missile and swarm threats. (Photo: EUNAVFOR)

‘In the context of a changing geopolitical landscape, European Military Forces (EMF) are facing new and evolving threats that are smaller, faster and more diverse, with increased manoeuvrability, like for instance Ballistic Missiles (BMs), Hypersonic Glide Vehicles (HGV) and Hypersonic Cruise Missiles (HCM), and swarmed attacks in a sensor-adverse environment (eg, stealth target, high target mix, environmental clutter, electronic attack).’

This prescient text is taken from the ‘General Objective’ description of the NCS project, published on 21 June 2021.

The NCS programme is a first significant step in countering this evolving threat picture. The programme’s specific objective is ‘to develop a full NCS capability allowing a better tactical situational awareness’, according to its tender documents, forming a foundation for full collaborative engagement capabilities.

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Experts at Leonardo and Naval Group, two industry leaders bidding for the programme, talked to Shephard about NCS’s operational implications in the context of exchanging radar information.

‘At the moment, within a coalition, navies exchange radar tracks,’ Lorenzo Cozzella, naval capabilities business development marketing manager at Leonardo, said.

Put simply, when a ship receives another ship’s track, all the data processing has already been carried out by the vessel sharing the track. This has multiple implications.

First, it requires waiting for the data to be processed and subsequently shared through tactical data links, with associated bandwidth limitations and latencies.

Secondly, ‘it also means there is no control, on the receiving end, over the filters being applied to process the raw data and build the track’, Cozzella said.

Finally, even the most advanced AWW radars today feed the ship’s combat management system (CMS) with plot information every few seconds – typically around 10s for long-range radar.

Above: There can be a ten-second gap between long-range radar plots feeding into a ship’s CMS. (Photo: Naval Group)

In a world where threats are becoming faster, stealthier and potentially saturating, a few seconds can make all the difference, so Plot Level Data Exchange and Fusion (PLDEF), NCS’s focus, aims to offer a much more efficient solution.

‘The aim is to work directly with raw sensor data,’ Yonec Fihey, business development senior manager surface ships and systems at Naval Group, told Shephard, ‘exchanging it much more efficiently, with low latency and higher precision in a collaborative manner at force level’.

Operationally, the NCS programme effectively seeks to overcome issues related to the time required for a radar – and therefore CMS – to build a track, process it and share it.

‘What the NCS is trying to achieve is a radar plots exchange between multiple ships on a regular, asynchronous basis,’ Cozzella explained, ‘so that when compiling the tactical picture on each receiving ship the multiple plots are combined to create a much more detailed, updated track on the screen.’

It will also present a significant step forward in overcoming issues around sharing data over the horizon.

Work on NCS per se has not started yet, as the European Commission is organising partners, responsibilities and calls for projects within the programme – the next one should be announced mid-2023. However, industry has already started teaming up and exploring potential solutions.

This includes Thales Nederland which is already working with Naval Group and the French Navy on PLDEF.

During a visit to the Thales site at Hengelo in January journalists were told that a first test of PLDEF has already been carried out between a Dutch and a French frigate: the two ships successfully shared their radar plots to create a more accurate, high-update-rate picture of a potential ballistic threat.

Above: French and Dutch frigates have successfully carried out a test of Plot Level Data Exchange and Fusion technology. (Photo: Dutch MoD)

During the test, radar measurements were exchanged via satellite links through each navy’s respective battle labs. ‘This helped us overcome the issue of exchanging raw data without an existing interface standard,’ Rogier Noorland, product manager integrated air missile defence at Thales, told reporters.

In other words, the tests proved that PLDEF was achievable and will serve as a stepping stone towards NSC, according to a Thales spokesperson.

Ultimately, NCS Level 1 activities aim to ‘define an EU protocol/interface standard that will allow European units within a naval force to share raw detection data in order to enrich the tactical situation.’

The next steps, well into the future, will include extending PLDEF to air assets (Level 2) and adding additional functions to the NCS capability (Level 3). The latter will focus on ensuring better multi-asset, multi-domain coordination within a coalition, from improved network management and capability tasking to the ability to select the best combination of sensors available to a force.

Uncrewed giants or crewed midgets? The future of the ‘mini-sub’

Extra-large unmanned underwater vehicles (XLUUVs) between 15 and 25m long, midget submarines as small as 9m long, coastal and shallow-water submarines between 12 and 51m long…

After being almost forgotten for several decades following the end of the Cold War, underwater warfare is reclaiming its rightful place in naval strategy. Yet, as this year’s NAVDEX event demonstrated, the ever-increasing variety of threats and operating environments is inspiring a multitude of innovative solutions that transcend conventional distinctions.

Above: The unconventional Highland Systems Kronos design turned a few heads at NAVDEX 2023. (Image: Highland Systems)

For instance, the UAE’s Highland Systems shipyard showcased Kronos, a steel-hulled submarine. Although not referred to as a ‘mini’ or ‘midget’ submarine in the company’s fact sheet, Kronos is effectively very small by submarine standards. At 9.03m long, 7.43m wide and 2.09m high, it can fit ten crew plus a pilot and be armed with four to six lightweight Leonardo Black Scorpion torpedoes. The system has been designed to operate at ‘NATO shallow-water depth’ – between 10m and 200m.

Similarly, Fincantieri chose NAVDEX to unveil the S800, an 800t submarine designed to operate in shallow and coastal waters at up to 250m. With a length of 51m and capable of carrying 18 crew as well as torpedoes such as Black Shark, the S-800 is not a mini/midget submarine any more, but is definitely not yet a conventional attack submarine.

Finally, at NAVDEX the China State Shipbuilding Corporation displayed images of an XLUUV that appeared to be coherent with previous satellite imagery-based reports of such craft being built and tested in the PRC. Although no specific information was provided, the images revealed a structure resembling a flank array sonar and doors for launching four torpedoes.

These developments are consistent with trends observed around the world: the USN and RN working on their own XLUUVs, the Navy SEALS Dry Combat Submersible for coastal and shallow waters, or the three midget submarine classes operated by the North Korean Navy.

Above: The Fincantieri S800 design sits somewhere between a mini-sub and a conventional SSK. (Photo: Giovanni Rasio)

They are also clear indications of how underwater warfare is taking a step back in order to make a significant leap forward. Midget submarines and associated tactics – which the Japanese used in the Pacific during World War II – are now being revived in their original form but also as XLUUVs carrying out ISR missions, keeping humans out of harm’s way.

Mid-sized submarines for operations in shallow, constrained environments are also clearly now an option for the future fleet mix.

Does Australia have the skills base to run a nuclear submarine fleet?

On 13 March, political leaders from the US, UK and Australia made an important announcement. Australia will build, together with the UK, nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSN-AUKUS) and, while waiting to receive the first boat in the ‘early 2040s’, will buy three Virginia class subs from the US ‘beginning in the early 2030s’, with an option for two more.

Beyond the list of concerns already discussed in depth in the media since the announcement, one critical point the initial statement appears to gloss over also deserves attention: how will Australia create the workforce needed to develop, build and sustain nuclear-powered submarines?

Above: Australia plans to take up to five Virginia-class boats in the 2030s. (Photo: USN)

Australia ratified the Treaty of Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in 1970. Since then, its nuclear activity has been limited to the realm of medical and materials research with the Lucas Heights Open Pool Australian Lightwater (OPAL) reactor.

Canberra’s commitment to the NPT is so strong that it does not even recycle its own nuclear waste – this is currently done in the UK.

While this all may be compatible with the announcement on 13 March, it also brings to the fore another important issue: recruiting and retaining skills in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM), as noted by the Australian National University’s vice-chancellor, Prof Brian Schmidt, during the Submarine Institute of Australia’s conference in November 2022.

Currently, only 9% of Year 12 (16-17 years of age) students are taking higher mathematics and 17% taking intermediate mathematics, two fundamental elements for STEM success. Additionally, the number of women in STEM university programmes remains very low (29%).

To be clear, for Australia to hope to have a qualified workforce to start on the SSN-AUKUS programme in the coming decade, it needs to start now with summer science programmes for year 10 students.

Presuming this activity would be tailored to the AUKUS programme, it might deliver a new set of undergraduates starting the relevant STEM degree by 2025, but many would require a master’s degree (completed by 2030) or a PhD (completed by 2033).

This is without counting the required work experience necessary to start work on a programme of such importance…

Above: Australia has experiencing of building and crewing conventional submarines, but faces a shortfall of STEM graduates to support an SSN programme. (Photo: RAN)

In other words, what Australia needs right now is additional funding, beyond the ‘mere’ submarine acquisition, to develop the educational framework – infrastructure, teachers, lecturers, curriculum – to build the skills needed for SSN-AUKUS.

Can Australia realistically be ready, time- and money-wise, to start operating and building nuclear submarines in the next decade?

Amphibious vessels on the agenda as navies seek flexible multirole fleets

Analysis by Giovanni Rasio

At least 13 countries worldwide are looking to acquire new amphibious vessel capabilities by 2030, with Asia and Europe leading investments with a total forecast expenditure of up to $20 billion over this decade.

While amphibious doctrine is undergoing a revamp due to the changing threat environment, LPDs and similar designs remain high on navies’ wishlists thanks to their flexibility. Recent programmes have highlighted new mission profiles, with countries such as Qatar and Algeria equipping their LPDs as fully fledged air defence vessels and Portugal eyeing a platform to act as a mothership for uncrewed systems.

Above: A total of 68 new amphibious ships are expected to be ordered by 2030. (Source: Shephard Defence Insight)

While the US is procuring up to 35 New Landing Ship Mediums and continuing to buy America-class and San Antonio Flight II ships, European, Asia-Pacific and South American countries are expected to acquire 33 new amphibious vessels.

In Europe, investments account for almost $10 billion, with the UK, Italy, the Netherlands, and Portugal seeking new capabilities. While Rome and Lisbon are at advanced stages with their plans, London and Amsterdam still need to finalise their procurement programmes.

The UK aims to invest in six Multi-Role Support Ships, but the 2022-2032 Defence Equipment Plan did not include funding for the programme. Elsewhere, the Royal Netherlands Navy is looking to replace two LPDs and four patrol vessels with a single ship class.

Above: Australia, Malaysia and New Zealand could invest up to $4.5 billion by 2025. (Source: Shephard Defence Insight)

LPDs and LHDs are also high on the agenda for Indo-Pacific navies. In the region, although usually framed in the context of power projection operations or expeditionary task groups, amphibious warships are of paramount importance for HADR missions.

India and Singapore have longstanding requirements for ships akin to LHDs with embarked helicopter capabilities. Australia, Malaysia and New Zealand have also expressed intentions to purchase new LPDs. The three countries are expected to sign contracts for an estimated combined value of $4.5 billion by 2025.

Above: 2024 should see a total of 5 amphibious vessels put on contract. (Source: Shephard Defence Insight)

In Latin America, after Peru and Chile, Argentina and Colombia are in talks to locally build new amphibious ships relying on partnerships with foreign shipbuilders. This approach represents a consolidated dynamic in South America, as it aims to favour local industry alongside the acquisition of new platforms.

The global interest in amphibious ships comes as no surprise. Large onboard spaces and the capacity to embark various subsystems make these vessels inherently suited to fulfil different tasks, evolve and keep pace with future challenges.

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