Is Australia backing the wrong horse with AUKUS?
The last time I attended the Indo Pacific event in Sydney was in October 2017, when it was still called the Pacific International Maritime Exposition. It was a little over a year and a half after Australia had announced its decision to select a French submarine design for its Collins class replacement, and that country’s industry was present all over the show floor.
Fast forward to 2023, just a little over two years after Australia cancelled the Attack-class programme to jump into AUKUS, and suddenly French exhibitors were barely anywhere to be seen... Continues below
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Above: On one level, AUKUS is about replacing Australia’s Collins-class submarines, but its geopolitical implications are perhaps even more important. (Photo: Commonwealth of Australia)
Sure, major OEMs with a footprint in the country, such as Thales and MBDA, had their stand in the halls. So did Exail, which is still competing for the SEA1905 mine countermeasures programme. But there was no French pavilion. Clearly, the pain inflicted by AUKUS was still too raw.
Yet France remains an important player in the Indo-Pacific region. Thanks to its island overseas territories, it is home to 93% of the country’s EEZ – the largest of a European country and the second largest in the world – and 1.8 million French nationals, with 1.6 million living in French territories and just over 190,000 expats.
Trying to understand France’s role in such a complex and contrasted geostrategic context made for very interesting conversations over the course of the Indo Pacific 2023 week, both as a French national and as a defence journalist…
From a geopolitical standpoint, multiple interventions during the Sea Power conference noted that Australia is unable – in fact, always has been – to fend for itself. Yes, it can protect its own EEZ, but within the region Australian sea power has always been coalition-based. And by coalition, one should read primarily with the US.
AUKUS, as one conference presenter put it, is only part of a longstanding strategic tradition.
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Why the third dimension is key to Australian maritime domain awareness
From a purely practical point of view, my question to the presenter was: why then count on the UK, which has no territories and very little presence in the region since the mid-20th century, as a strategic ally? Why risk alienating a regional actor such as France with a botched submarine deal?
The answer, which came in private after the presentations, was very interesting: because with all its regional territories, France has a lot of stakes in the region, whereas the UK represents a much more impartial ally.
I guess I can see that. Ultimately, if tensions really came to a breaking point in the region and push came to shove, France would protect, first and foremost, its own islands and EEZ.
But wouldn’t this be the same for the US? In fact, aren’t there already significant concerns raised in Australia regarding the next US presidential elections and their impact on the American defence industry and posture and, consequently, AUKUS?
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The reality, when one moves away from political talk and puts an ear to the ground to hear what Australians actually have to say, is that France remains a regional ally people feel they can turn to.
Because, as another British source put it to me, the UK, Australia and the US are no more or less like-minded – a term that is bandied about when talking about AUKUS – than France is with these three countries. Like-mindedness implies having the same ideas, opinion and/or interests. Yet at a geopolitical level those are far too contingent upon electoral cycles.
Above: Australian naval power projection is largely dependent on being part of a coalition, principally with the US. What happens if the two countries’ regional interests diverge? (Photo: USN)
Australian academics and think tanks, the same source told me, prefer using the term allies, which implies cooperation. And France, in this sense, is still very much seen as an ally when it comes to cooperating to counter China’s assertive behaviour in the region.
This was made very clear to me when I was also asked repeatedly by Australian contacts in the industry where was France on the show floor. For many in the country, being overly dependent on US and UK technologies for Australia’s future critical capabilities – especially something as critical as a submarine – makes as little sense as overreliance on just France back in the Attack-class days.
The European defence industry, in which France is a major player, has much to offer to the Australian defence forces. On the Indo Pacific exhibition floor there was an Italian pavilion and quite a few Spanish companies. So where was the French presence?
AUKUS happened. Yes, it could have been handled better and France – and the French defence industry – had every right to be upset. But perhaps it is time to move on. On both sides.
Australian politicians would do well to listen to journalists and policy analysts. There might also be something to be gleaned from the general population. Survey results presented by one of the Sea Power conference presenters showed that while 43% of Australians interviewed believe AUKUS makes the Indo Pacific safer, 47% also believe that it locks Australia into doing US bidding in the region.
What that bidding might be in a few years’ time, when there might be a different Commander in Chief sitting in the White House, remains rather uncertain.
The French may also benefit from putting their ear to the ground in Australia. After all, industry might realise there is still a role to be played, much as France still has an important role as Australia’s ally in the region. Because if tomorrow Chinese actions threaten national sovereignties in the Indo Pacific, France will be on a level with Australia in terms of national interest. So, could we perhaps all be friends again?
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